Fighting Myths & Co. with investment discipline
In times of volatility and uncertainty, investment discipline often suffers. Discover Vontobel’s expertise as a global investment firm with Swiss root.
5 (wrong) investment myths debunked
Insights, Perspectives 2022
Updated at 1/31/2023
Originally published at 5/20/2022 Reading time: 4 minute(s)
Originally published at 5/20/2022 Reading time: 4 minute(s)
What “safe haven” investments are left?
Myth 1:
Cash is safe
In fact, hoarding cash leads to devaluation by inflation. Your money buys a lot less.
Source: Vontobel 2022.
Discover why the old “safe” has become the new “false friend”
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Chart: Devaluation in detail
During a period of monetary easing, the purchasing power of cash plummeted.
Safe haven 1: Devaluation of cash in local currency vs. local inflation
▬ USA ▬ Eurozone ▬ United Kingdom ▬ SwitzerlandSource: Bloomberg; cash less month-over-month inflation (CPI all items).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.Similar to cash, the former “safe haven” of sovereign bonds has lost purchasing power over the last decade.
Safe haven 2: Devaluation of short-term sovereign bonds in local currency vs. local inflation
▬ USA ▬ Eurozone ▬ United Kingdom ▬ SwitzerlandSource: Bloomberg; 1–3 years sovereign bonds, less month-over-month inflation (CPI all items).
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
Myth 2:
You need to wait for the right moment to enter
Actually, compound interest effects can tip the balance of your investment
Source: Vontobel 2022; for illustrative purposes only.
Four ways of investing 100 USD over twenty years: Investors who enter the market at once unlock better long-term compound effects compared to investors who stagger the same amount over time. Illustration based on an estimated 10% returns per annum.
Discover why immediate investment often pays off
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Chart: Losses with staggered entry
“Historically, the immediate investment paid off most”.
Jonathan Hinterwirth,
Head Asset Allocation in Vontobel’s Multi-asset BoutiqueEntering the market in a cautiously staggered manner can affect your performance more than possibly “bad” timing in the beginning, e.g., entering the market at peak time. Slide right to learn more:
Losses from staggered investments with monthly ramp-up
Source: Vontobel 2022. S&P 500 Index returns from 01.02.1990 to 31.01.2023, daily total returns (including dividends), gross.Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
On average, investors can lose up to –5.8% when following a staggered investment plan
Source: Vontobel 2022. S&P 500 Index returns from 01.02.1990 to 31.01.2023, daily total returns (including dividends), gross.Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
Myth 3:
Timing the market is the only source of returns
What does history teach investors?
The average investor does not retain real wealth.
Source: Inflation based on US Consumer Price Index (CPI); average investor represented by Dalbar’s average asset allocation investor return, which utilizes the net of average mutual fund sales, redemptions and exchanges each month (“Investing & Emotions”, BlackRock Investment Insight 2016).
Don’t be afraid—bulls have endurance, bears don’t
Source: Vontobel 2022.
In the bear market, it’s the perspective that matters
Despite investor’s natural bias to vividly remember bear days, only a small number of trading periods were actually bearish in the past. Chart compares the number of bear market days versus the number of bull market days per occurrence, summed up as average of years.
Time in the market is the long-term investor’s business
A look at the total returns in global equities between 1999 and 2022, demonstrates where the “fear of missing out” (FOMO) comes from—and that staying invested can be your antidote.
Source: Bloomberg, based on the index MSCI ACWI from 01.01.1999 to 31.12.2022, daily total returns (including dividends), gross.
Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
Discover why a longer time horizon lowers investment risk
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Chart: S&P 500 historical returns since 1928
When looking at maximum intra-year drawdowns since the infamous 1928 crash, we learn that drawdowns are usually recovered, at least partially, by the end of the year.
Why it’s not worth being overly afraid of drawdowns in detail:
▬ S&P 500 returns ▬ Intra-year drawdownSource: S&P 500 historical returns from 1928 to December 31, 2022, daily total returns (including dividends), gross.
Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance.
Myth 4:
Portfolio diversification is good for safety, not for returns
Performance of a balanced portfolio since 1900
A balanced portfolio is positive in 97% of cases in any 5-year period over 122 years.
Looking at the big picture:
Source: Vontobel 2022, Bloomberg, Global Financial Data; income from the S&P 500 Index and US Government Bonds from 1900 to end of 2022, annual total returns (including dividends), gross. Note: Historical data doesn’t guarantee the same course of events in the future. Not applicable to all regions and/or investment styles.
A balanced portfolio can be exemplified by 45% equities and 55% government bonds. A holding period of five years and more is the kind of long-term perspective investors favor.
Now let’s do the math: 97% of the time, a balanced portfolio spanning five years or more in any given timeframe ends up in positive territory and yielded, in fact, +7,3% per annum over the last 122 years.
Discover why a long-term balanced investment strategy is a solid foundation
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Chart: Historical returns by asset class
“Investors often need to take risks to achieve their investment goals, but individual asset classes do not perform every year”.
Jonathan Hinterwirth,
Head Asset Allocation in Vontobel’s Multi-asset BoutiqueAs a long-term investor, taking risks in a smart way can increase your investment success. In a multi-asset environment, you need to take risks in higher yielding asset classes but they do not deliver year to year—which is why diversification is a practical tool at hand.
Annual returns of key asset classes (in %, USD)
▬ Commodities ▬ Cash ▬ Gold ▬ Hedge funds ▬ Global sovereigns ▬ Corporate bonds ▬ Global equities ▬ Global real estate
Best 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 2022 19.5 1.8 0.4 –4.4 –10.0 –14.1 –18.4 –24.5 2021 33.1 29.5 18.5 3.7 0.1 –0.8 –1.6 –4.3 2020 24.6 16.3 8.3 6.8 5.0 3.5 0.5 –4.3 2019 28.6 23.9 18.4 12.5 8.6 8.4 7.2 2.2 2018 2.8 2.0 –0.9 –1.0 –5.6 –6.7 –9.3 –9.4 2017 24.0 15.6 12.7 6.0 5.7 4.2 2.2 1.1 2016 13.1 8.1 7.9 6.2 3.8 3.8 2.5 0.6 2015 1.4 1.0 0.3 –0.2 –2.4 –3.6 –12.1 –23.1 2014 15.0 8.0 7.6 4.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 –14.8 2013 22.8 6.7 3.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 –8.5 –27.3 2012 29.7 16.1 10.9 8.3 4.5 3.5 0.2 –1.3 2011 8.9 5.4 4.8 0.2 –6.4 –7.3 –8.9 –9.4 2010 29.2 21.5 18.7 12.7 7.2 5.2 3.6 0.3 2009 34.6 33.8 25.0 22.5 16.6 3.4 1.4 0.3 2008 8.9 4.3 3.0 –5.1 –23.3 –30.4 –42.2 –47.6 2007 31.9 24.5 11.7 5.7 5.4 4.2 3.2 –4.9 2006 40.9 23.2 21.0 14.9 9.3 5.2 3.6 3.4 2005 35.9 17.8 16.2 10.8 4.8 3.5 3.3 2.7 2004 37.0 25.3 15.2 5.5 4.8 4.6 2.7 1.4 2003 37.6 34.0 26.9 19.9 13.4 6.5 2.1 1.2 2002 26.7 25.6 8.2 8.2 4.7 1.8 –7.9 –19.3 2001 8.7 8.7 6.5 4.1 0.7 –12.0 –12.1 –16.2 ▬ Commodities ▬ Cash ▬ Gold ▬ Hedge funds ▬ Global sovereigns ▬ Corporate bonds ▬ Global equities ▬ Global real estate
Source: Vontobel 2022. Indexes used to track asset classes: Cash (USD) SBWMUD1U, Global Sovereigns (USD) LGAGTRUH, Global Corporate Bonds Investment Grade (USD) LGCPTRUH, Equities AC (USD) NDUEACWF, Gold (USD) GOLDLNPM, Commodities (USD) BCOMF3T, Global Real Estate (USD) MXWO0RE, Hedge Funds (USD) HFRXGL.Note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance. Performance data does not take into account any commissions and costs charged when shares of the fund are issued and redeemed, if applicable. The return of the fund may go down as well as up due to changes in rates of exchange between currencies.
Myth 5:
Passive is always the best way to go
Net returns of an actively managed fund vs. an index
Source: Bloomberg, net returns of the Vontobel Fund mtx Sustainable Emerging Markets Leaders A (VGREMEI LX Equity) versus the MSCI Emerging Markets index (MXEF) from 16.07.2011, when the fund was launched, to 31.12.2021.
Note: Not all actively managed funds succeed in beating a comparable, index-based passive product. According to Morningstar’s European Active/Passive Barometer 2021, active funds’ success rates over the ten years through June 2021, were less than 25% in nearly two-thirds of the categories surveyed. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance. Performance data does not take into account any commissions and costs charged when shares of the fund are issued and redeemed, if applicable. The return of the fund may go down as well as up due to changes in rates of exchange between currencies
Discover why investing can benefit from active management
Some people advise you “grow with the flow” of global markets by opting for passive ETF structures. However, index-based, passive investing cannot unlock alpha returns, nor react at all times in periods of shifting markets.
Active managers such as Vontobel aim to increase net returns while keeping drawdowns similar, or lower, compared to index-based products.
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