The global economy is booming
Our macro view as of June 2021
Positive outlook in summer 2021: Check out here whether the optimistic forecasts from our Investment Outlook 2021 remain confirmed.
How we position ourselves strategically: The monthly CIO Update analyzes the current market environment and reveals its economic background. It is presented by Frank Häusler, our Chief Strategist, and Sandrine Perret, Senior Economist.
Peak of the global economy in summer 2021
In most countries, sentiment among companies is very good based on the PMI data . Globally, economic growth is about to peak. The Eurozone and Japan are still lagging behind, but they will also follow the trend.
Inflation is also expected to peak this year due to various base effects. However, central banks also will look through due to the transitory nature of the inflation overshoot. Thus, we do not expect a recession and anticipate positive equity returns.
In summary, we can expect the following:
- A global peak in economic growth in the summer of 2021.
- Inflation rising and overshooting central bank targets but then to moderate again: Central banks will continue to support but not increase their efforts.
- No economic recession and therefore positive stock returns (risk-on positioned).
Investment Outlook 2022
Harder, better, tougher, greenerJust four buzzwords for investment year 2022? Find out more about Vontobel’s baseline scenario and get an overview of the backstory from our experts.
