Inflation: The short return of an (almost) forgotten specter
Our macro view as of March 2021
Although there is a possibility of serious risks, we expect the global economic picture to be encouraging. Learn which points continue to confirm our Investment Outlook 2021 and which risks we are keeping an eye on.
How we are strategically positioned: The monthly CIO Update analyzes the current market environment and reveals the background. It is presented by Frank Häusler, our Chief Strategist, and Sandrine Perret, Senior Economist.
“The Boarding continues”
An encouraging global economic picture is expected. Existing lockdowns will cause some slowdowns, but a strong decline in Corona infections should provide a boost to the economy in the near future.
Thus, we continue to adhere to the “boarding” baseline scenario from our Investment Outlook 2021.
We expect expansionary monetary and fiscal policy to remain with us over the coming months. Although there is currently an increase in inflation indicators, this is only a temporary phenomenon.
Despite a positive economic scenario, we take the potential risks and their consequences seriously:
- Risk 1: A third Corona wave followed by an extension of the lockdowns. This could lead to a weak economic recovery.
- Risk 2: Stronger-than-expected second-round effects. This would mean a high number of bankruptcies and an increasing joblessness.
- Risk 3: Stronger inflationary pressure due to highly expansionary fiscal policy. This could lead to a rethink of expansionary monetary policy.
Investment Outlook 2022
Harder, better, tougher, greenerJust four buzzwords for investment year 2022? Find out more about Vontobel’s baseline scenario and get an overview of the backstory from our experts.
