Special macroeconomic update for the month of April 2023

Last year we considered a recession likely in 2023. Unfortunately, it looks like we were right about that. The significant interest rate hikes implemented by central banks have now reached the real economy. Inflation is likely to fall even more sharply, and we expect the US labor market to weaken, though up to now it has been very resilient. Rate cuts in the second half of the year are likely.

This "big picture" is currently being overshadowed by two banks that have made big headlines in the past couple of weeks. We would like to go into this crisis in more detail in this edition of the blog. On the one hand we will take a look at the reasons behind the events, and then on the other hand we’ll explore possible consequences.

In this fragile environment, we are sticking to an overall neutral positioning of our portfolio.