Outlook 2021: Three macroeconomic scenarios for a global economic recovery

How we are strategically positioned: Get fist-hand insights in our Monthly CIO Video with Dan Scott, CIO Wealth Management and Reto Cueni, Chief Economist.

“Dear passengers, please take up your seats!”

Airports have mutated into a no-go zone during the Covid-19 pandemic. But air traffic could soon regain momentum once vaccines become available. In our baseline macroeconomic scenario, “boarding”, we expect the global economic recovery to be completed by Q3 2021, with emerging markets leading the way.

US elections – a key risk event for markets – are now safely behind us. Going forward, the following key factors will determine the trajectory of asset prices:

• the need for further fiscal support
• easy monetary policy
• and how we handle the remainder of the Covid crisis