The global economy at the peak of growth
Our macro view as of July & August 2021
The world recovers fast from the pandemic: Check out here whether the optimistic forecasts from our Investment Outlook 2021 remain confirmed.
How we position ourselves strategically: The monthly CIO Update analyzes the current market environment and reveals the background. It is presented by Frank Häusler, our Chief Strategist, and Reto Cueni, Chief Economist.
From "boarding" to "take-off"
The economy exceeded the forecasts made at the beginning of the year. Globally, the economy moved from our "boarding" scenario to the "take-off" scenario. There are 4 reasons explaining this behavior:
- Covid-restrictions had less impact on the economy than expected.
- Faster global Covid-vaccination campaigns than assumed last year
- Better than expected performance of Asian emerging markets
- Faster and higher U.S. public spending
One consequence of this quicker recovery is likely to be that central banks are scaling back their support earlier than expected. As a result, the global economy is currently at a "peak" not only in terms of monetary stimulus, but also in terms of public spending and governmental support measures as well as inflation and economic growth. In this environment, Vontobel is reducing its equity weighting, but remains overweight and risk-on positioned.
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