Amid bottlenecks, some growth is postponed, not canceled
Our macro view as of November 2021
Global growth has peaked, and the sweet spot of monetary and fiscal stimulus now clearly lies behind us. Despite this, growth should continue to run above trend for some time until it decelerates next year: Check out our view on the economic outlook here.
How we position ourselves strategically: The monthly CIO Update analyzes the current market environment and reveals the background. It is presented by Dan Scott, CIO Wealth Management, and Reto Cueni, Chief Economist.
It is not the right time to be underweight equities
True, the past few weeks have been tough for the world economy.
- Various pandemic-induced supply bottlenecks have resulted in shortages across the board.
- The widespread energy crunch has sent prices for coal and natural gas to record highs.
- The ongoing semiconductor shortage has curtailed production in several key industries.
These very factors have also contributed to inflation being stickier than initially anticipated. The shortages will likely shift some portions of growth from the current quarter into next year, but we still expect growth rates to remain above their pre-pandemic averages for some quarters.
In this environment, Vontobel thinks that now is a good time to reinforce our positive view on US equities by upgrading this asset class to a strong overweight, which results in a positive view on equities overall.
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