Positive outlook for emerging-market equities
Macroeconomic update for May 2023
While global economic growth may be slowing down, emerging-market (EM) economies – especially China – provide investors with a bright spot. Since the country’s post-pandemic reopening, retail sales have pointed to strong consumption and a better-than-expected GDP figure for the first quarter delighted investors.
Even as we expect the US to head into a recession and plenty of other risks ahead as well, declining inflation and the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve’s rate-hike journey coming to an end soon leads us to believe that it’s a good time to start building portfolio exposure.
The monthly CIO update analyzes the current market environment and delves into the economic backdrop. Dan Scott, Head of Vontobel Multi Asset, and Michaela Huber, Cross-Asset Strategist, discuss the trends.
Key Takeaways
- Allocating some cash to EM equities, upgrading to overweight
The prospect of better returns in stocks is more enticing than sitting on cash. - EM economies present a bright spot
Economic data that beat expectations usually lead to EM equities outperforming their counterparts in developed markets. - Opportune timing
Drowning out the noise, declining inflation and the upcoming end of rate hikes present a good time to build portfolio exposure.
