Investment Outlook 2022

What trends will characterize 2022? How should investors be positioned in the current environment? Find out more about Vontobel’s baseline scenario and get an overview of the backstory from our experts.

Harder – better – tougher – greener

Four buzzwords for investment year 2022

The latest macro-economic data leave us in no doubt as to where we currently stand in the economic cycle: the growth high point is definitively behind us. That not only applies to Emerging Markets, which are one step ahead of the cycle due to the pandemic, it is equally applicable to leading economic powers including the USA and the Eurozone. Still, we do not think that is reason for concern.

Return to new highs

Behind us lies a barnstorming race to make up lost ground during which we did see the markets catch up. It is worth keeping that fact in the back of our minds when we hear talk of “slowing growth”. It is also borne up by the continuing stable environment and well-filled order books – notwithstanding selective supply bottlenecks and soaring energy prices.

What investors should have on their checklist in 2022

Learn more about the four investment themes by clicking on the tiles below. Learn more about how we interpret the war in Ukraine from geopolitical and investment viewpoints in this topic hub.

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Inflation
normalization

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Inflation normalization

Inflation: this will be one of the most important developments to watch over the year.

Background: the reopening of the global economy after the Covid-related lockdowns caused a global inflation surge in 2021. The energy crisis and the supply-demand mismatches responsible for this increase will start to fade in 2022.

Our assessment: We continue to expect inflation to come down from high levels over the course of 2022. This normalization will probably also determine the pace at which central banks reduce monetary stimulus.

Read more on the topic “inflation”

Covid-19
scars

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The (long) Covid legacy

Discussions around high corporate taxation, wealth redistribution and the price tag of the pandemic will enter economic debates in 2022.

Background: While still very present, Covid-19 appears to be less of a worry as we enter 2022. New variants are a risk, but likely manageable in 2022.

Fiscal support was key to avoid more severe recessions. With a slow withdrawal of pandemic support measures, the legacy of the Covid economic shock will start to appear in 2022.

Our assessment: in 2022, discussions will center around high government debt ratios and how to put economies on a path towards fiscal sustainability - even if strong deleveraging trends are unlikely to start soon.

Rear more about “long-term effects” and “public debts”

Investment opportunities 2022: China’s New Forces will continue to open up interesting perspectives for investors in 2022

China’s
worries

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China’s moving forces

Western diplomatic relations with China appear to be improving although new confrontations between China and the US or the new “AUKUS” Asia-Pacific alliance remain a risk.

Background: China’s slowing growth will once again be noticeable in 2022 with growth of 5.5% expected based on the fact that the property and construction industries account for a large part of China's economy.

Our assessment: Chinese domestic policies will be widely discussed abroad next year. We expect that authorities will intervene to support a gradual structural adjustment of the real estate market without large negative impact on economic activity.

More on the topic “China”

Investing in a greener economy is one of the key themes for investors in 2022

Climate
urgency

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A climate crisis will follow on from the health crisis

There will be pressure on companies and governments to incorporate sustainability goals into their investment decisions.

Background: Awareness of climate change policies is increasing, as is the urgency for drastic (re)action. Society as a whole expects concrete steps in the aftermath of the November 2021 COP26 summit.

Our assessment: Emergency measures to reach carbon neutrality will intensify. As economies recover from the pandemic, the focus of society - and of governing bodies – is shifting from the seriousness of the pandemic to climate change awareness and policy responses.

At the same time, the quality of ESG data will continue to improve in 2022 and that will influence requirements for transparent sustainability reporting from companies and governments.

More on the topic “climate urgency”

ESG investing from A to Z

Preview of the live presentation

A few key takeaways from the Vontobel Investment Outlook 2022. The presentation is followed by a discussion on macro economic themes and relevant investment ideas 2022 with Christine Maier and Peter Romanzina, Head of Swiss Equities Research. © Vontobel

In the video presentation we answer the following questions:

Which uncertainties can already be rebutted by taking a look at current figures?
What, in our view, is to be expected from the specter of inflation – and how do we think the central banks will react?
How should investors be positioned in 2022?
Wall Street correspondent Jens Korte in New York comments on the macro-economic outlook.
Podium discussion with Vontobel investment experts answering questions from the live stream audience.

The live stream took place in English and German. You can access the English version by changing the language in the main menu.

More about our speakers and experts
Frank Häusler

Chief Investment Strategist

Nel 2018 Frank Häusler è entrato a far parte di Vontobel Asset Management in veste di Head of Macroeconomic & Cross-Asset-Research. Nel 2019 ha assunto il ruolo di Chief Strategist e a metà del 2020 è diventato responsabile degli investimenti tematici nel Wealth Management. In qualità di Chief Investment Strategist monitora la strategia d’investimento ed è membro con diritto di voto dell’Asset Allocation Committee.

Prima di entrare a far parte del team Vontobel, dal 2014 al 2018 è stato Chief Investment Officer presso Marcuard Family Office e ha lavorato nell’Investment Advisory Board di un grande US Family Office. Dal 2009 al 2013 è stato operativo presso la banca privata Wegelin e la relativa società subentrante, 1741 Asset Management.

Frank Häusler si è laureato in matematica presso il Politecnico Federale di Zurigo.



Peter Romanzina

Head of Swiss Equity Research

Peter Romanzina joined Vontobel as Head of Brokerage in September 2010. He began his career at various banks in portfolio and asset management in Geneva, London, and Zurich before joining Schweizerische Kreditanstalt (SKA) in 1995. At SKA and later for Credit Suisse/First Boston (CSFB), he began as a research salesman for Swiss equities in Zurich and London. From 1998 to 2000, he headed Swiss Equity Research for CSFB and was also responsible for the Swiss equity strategy. From 2001 to 2010, he headed the brokerage business in Switzerland for Kepler (formerly Julius Baer) and was a member of the European Management Board.

Peter Romanzina is chartered financial analyst (CFA), financial risk manager (FRM), certified financial analyst and portfolio manager (CIIA).



Christine Maier

Journalist, TV anchor and entrepreneur

Over the last 30 years, Christine Maier has presented a range of TV formats on Swiss and German channels SRF, ZDF and Bayerische Rundfunk (BR). On Swiss TV, she was presenter and editor-in-chief for “Club” and news presenter on “10vor10”. In 2013, she took over as chief editor for “SonntagsBlick”.

Since May 2016, she has focused on her mandate as communications consultant for leading management personalities and works as public appearance coach, media trainer and host at economic and political events.



Jens Korte

Independent correspondent

Jens Korte runs an independent correspondent bureau in the heart of the financial district in New York. He reports live from Wall Street on a daily basis for Swiss and German TV stations. Jens Korte is live on air from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange or from all over Brooklyn and Manhattan. In 2003 he founded new york german press. The clients range from TV stations as SRF, ntv, Deutsche Welle to radio and print clients like Die Zeit. Jens Korte experienced the dotcom era, the attacks on 9-11, the recovery of New York and Wall Street, the financial crisis, the pandemic and five presidents in the White House. After a two year training program at the chemical company Hoechst AG near Frankfurt Jens Korte studied and graduated in economics in Berlin. While in university he started writing for newspapers and eventually moved to the Big Apple. He is married and has one son.

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