The economy stands up to the pandemic – and is preparing for spring

How we are strategically positioned: The monthly CIO Update analyzes the current market environment and reveals the background. It is presented by Frank Häusler, our Chief Strategist, and Reto Cueni, Chief Economist.

“The cyclical recovery in the industrial sector has taken place”

The macroeconomic forecasts predict a positive start to spring for the economy. Overall, a cyclical recovery can be observed, but this is – still – limited to individual sectors. The service sector in Europe in particular still has some catching up to do. On the other hand, growth in the USA appears to be returning rapidly, which has led to a significant rise in US interest rates and inflation expectations in particular. However, this increase is no surprise and can essentially be attributed to temporary effects. Accordingly, the national banks are currently relaxed about a short-term increase in inflation.

Risks remain the same

In summary, our experts’ assessment of economic developments is “optimistic”. Nevertheless, three main risks remain, which were already apparent in the previous month:

• Risk 1: A third Corona wave followed by an extension of the lockdowns. This could lead to a weak economic recovery.
• Risk 2: Stronger-than-expected second-round effects. This would mean a high number of bankruptcies and an increasing joblessness.
• Risk 3: Stronger inflationary pressure due to highly expansionary fiscal policy. This could lead to a rethink of expansionary monetary policy.

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